NHS Waiting List Backlog – Will New Government Plans Tackle The Issue?

The Health Secretary has this week been setting out in the Commons delayed plans to tackle the NHS backlog.

Unprecedented backlog

Before unveiling the plan, Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, acknowledged that, due to a need to focus on urgent care, the NHS was unable to deal with non-urgent care as much as would have been liked.

At the present time, there are six million people on a waiting list for non-urgent treatment. That’s an increase of around 1.6 million compared to pre-pandemic numbers.

Six million equates to around one-in-nine of the population, and it is predicted that the number will increase as demand rises now Covid pressure is easing.

Whilst it is clear that issues caused by the pandemic, such as suspension of routine operations, were causing some of the backlog, in reality, this was actually only compounding and adding to the pressures, which were already clear before the pandemic began.

Plans to tackle the backlog and return to pre-pandemic numbers

Mr Javid outlined that the Government plan will allow the NHS to conduct an additional nine million extra checks, tests and procedures by 2025. He advised that the Government would make greater use of the independent sector to boost capacity and help patients across all services.

The plan also sees the expansion of the use of surgical hubs dedicated to planned elective surgeries, which would help to fast-track operations and ensure more patients can go home on the same day. Mr Javid commented that these hubs had already been piloted and the plan now was to roll them out across the country.

The plans include the introduction of a new 28-day target for cancer diagnosis that had been delayed by the pandemic. Mr Javid said that the Government was determined to tackle disparities for cancer treatment, and there would be a renewed push on early diagnosis, which has worsened during the pandemic. This should have been introduced last year, but the recently unveiled plans suggest implementation by March 2024.

New diagnostic and surgical centres will be set up, and extra investment totalling over £8bn over the next three years would help hospitals increase the number of patients they are able to treat.

Mr Javid said that the plan would not only re-set the NHS to where it was before the pandemic, but also build on what had been learnt before and make the NHS “fit for the future”. Mr Javid also promised that the plans would eliminate long waits of over a year by 2025.

Rising numbers before they fall

However, it is expected that the waiting list for hospital treatment is unlikely to start falling for two years, despite the Government’s newly unveiled plans.

Numbers being referred for treatment during the pandemic reportedly dropped by around 10 million. It is thought that many people were deterred from seeking help for non-urgent matters to avoid putting pressure on the NHS.

Mr Javid said that the NHS was working on the basis that half of these so called “missing patients” were now likely to come forward as Covid pressure eases.

Will the plan work?

In response to the unveiled plan, Shadow Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, states that the NHS is understaffed and overworked and the ambitious plan risks more people leaving than the Government are able to recruit.

The Chief Executive of the NHS Confederation said that he thinks NHS leaders will welcome the plan. He described the plan outlined by the Health Secretary as being “an ambitious plan to tackle an issue that matters enormously to the public” and acknowledged that there are “big challenges” around rebuilding the NHS workforce as there will need to be a strong staffing plan to be able to deliver on the plans.

The key issue is seen to be workforce – retaining good staff and recruiting enough people into those specialisms that require more support.

It seems completely apparent that these plans hinge on the NHS workforce. Whilst tackling the huge backlog must be a priority, it remains unclear as to how the Government expects to be able to rectify the crippling under-staffing within the NHS at present. Adding further targets will increase pressure on those who remain in the NHS, and recruiting more people to staff new centres will be an enormous task.

Whilst plans to reduce the backlog and wait times may be welcomed, it is anticipated that it will be met with trepidation as to how it will be possible. In the meantime, patient safety remains very much at risk.