Who will Govern?

Gordon Brown became Prime Minister without facing an election. On 6 May 2010 he had no choice but to go to the polls. He failed to secure a majority and came second. Yet Gordon Brown remains incumbent at No.10.

The Conservatives won the most votes (36.2%) and the most MPs (306 seats), yet David Cameron is not Prime Minister. Had he secured an overall majority, Gordon Brown would have been expected to resign and David Cameron would have been invited by the Queen to form a new government.

In the absence of any one party commanding an overall majority in the Commons, the position is much less clear.

Now Gordon is going, the Queen can invite another to form a government. The presumption is that the leader of the opposition, winner of the election, David Cameron, will be appointed as Prime Minster. However, the Queen is unlikely to be willing to get involved in party politics and will leave it to the parties to reach a solution.

It seems therefore, that despite not wanting to be “kingmaker”, Nick Clegg is exactly that. He effectively holds the cards to determine who will be the next Prime Minister.

The magic number of seats required to form a majority in the House of Commons is 326. A Liberal/Conservative coalition would have a majority and secure residence at No.10.

A Liberal/Labour coalition would fall short of a majority at only 315 seats, but would secure more seats than the Conservative Party holds. Further support would have to be drawn from the ‘other’ parties to form a government.

In the event of a coalition proving elusive, the Conservative Party could form a minority government relying on the support of other parties to pass reform and indeed the support of the Lib Dems could be drawn upon on some issues.

In the absence of a coalition or minority government, another election could be held. However, unlikely to be popular with the electorate, would the people really make a different choice second time round?

Nick Clegg assures us that he is “almost, almost” there on making a decision. He will of course need the support of 75% of his MPs before any agreement with any other party is possible.

For the time being, however, and until the House of Commons meets and demonstrates its confidence in any new administration, the state of “purdah”, which has existed since the dissolution of Parliament will continue.


Written by Shelley Marshall, a Trainee Solicitor in the Commerce and Technology Team.